Press Story

Extreme weather is a political issue: unpreparedness fuels public anger and opens space for populists
Ignoring climate change risks losing votes on the left and right: 81 per cent of voters believe we are unprepared for its impacts
IPPR recommends better protecting people by pairing policies like solar for schools with adaptation to extreme heat, like air conditioning

Failure to adapt to escalating extreme weather is creating a governance crisis and leaving space for the populist right to exploit public anger, according to a new report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).

The think tank warns that failing to address the immediate impacts of climate change, alongside its causes, risks losing political ground to the right, while also losing support from voters across the spectrum who expect stronger action both now and in the future.

The report includes new polling by Persuasion UK, which shows that 81 per cent of people believe the UK is not prepared for the impacts of climate change. The research reveals that this holds across the voting spectrum, including 83 per cent of Labour’s 2024 voters and 84 per cent of Reform’s 2024 voters. Eight out of 10 of England’s most flood-prone constituencies are due to switch to Reform at the next election.

Despite this, 59 per cent of all voters think it is “not yet too late to avoid the worst impacts of climate change”, which holds for 46 per cent of all Reform curious voters and 70 per cent of Labour voters.

The public also backs tackling both the causes and impacts of climate change together. Only 5 per cent prioritise adaptation alone, while 54 per cent support pursuing adaptation and mitigation together (see chart in notes).

Researchers argue that this creates a clear political mandate for a dual approach: protecting people from climate impacts now while continuing to cut emissions to prevent future warming.

In practice, this means policies that make climate action visible in everyday life - such as schools with air conditioning powered by solar panels that allows students to concentrate during extreme heat, and football clubs who can keep their doors open, heat the showers for players and bring down the costs of their floodlight and energy bills because of solar power on their stands.

The warning comes after weeks of unprecedented rainfall across the UK, which has caused flooding, transport disruption, and school closures, as emergency services and local infrastructure were put under strain.

These impacts are no longer isolated incidents but structural pressures, with strained infrastructure – from water systems to energy networks – colliding with historic underinvestment in resilience. Britain’s water pipes and energy grid were already creaking without the added pressure of extreme weather, whilst hospitals are already cancelling operations in heatwaves.

The analysis argues that this lack of preparedness will increasingly shape Britain’s political landscape. When institutions fail to anticipate or manage extreme weather, public anger accelerates, creating opportunities for the populist right to frame events as proof of state incompetence – a pattern already seen in places such as California and Valencia.

The report reveals that the political stakes of extreme weather have shifted. Impacts once expected decades from now are already happening - the boundary of 1.5 degrees was expected in the 2040s will now be crossed this parliament. The public now reacts more strongly to failures of preparation than to failures of response.

Evidence also shows that when leaders explicitly link extreme weather to climate change, support for government policies increases.

IPPR recommendations include:

Investment in resilient infrastructure designed for heat, storms, drought and floods
Policies that combine immediate adaptation and protection with emissions reduction – for example, pairing clean energy with cooling systems in schools
Transparent communication that explicitly links extreme weather to climate change
Clear national adaptation targets aligned with the Climate Change Committee’s advice

Sam Alvis, associate director for environment and energy security at IPPR, said:

“Extreme weather is no longer just an environmental issue – it is core to government competence. By failing to prepare, communities are left exposed and political credibility is at risk. Without pointing to how extreme weather is making waiting lists longer, or children’s learning harder, those in power will have the blame directed at them. Progressives should work to tackle both the root causes and protect people from the immediate impacts in order to gain trust and support for the long-term fight against climate change."

Sofie Jenkinson, founding director at Round Our Way, said:

“Communities across the country are already dealing with the impacts of climate change in the form of floods, heatwaves, wildfires and the rising cost of food among many others. This is happening right now, with many people often left to work out how to respond or adapt on their own – with some even building their own flood defences.

“It’s great to see the government embracing the agenda to reduce future emissions through things like clean energy but we also need to see more political appetite to tackle and take on the impacts of climate change that are already here and those coming down the road. Progressive must fight to ensure that people up and down the country are protected now, as well as in the future.”

ENDS

Sam Alvis and Sofie Jenkinson are available for interview

CONTACT

Rosie Okumbe, digital and media officer: 07825 185421 r.okumbe@ippr.org

NOTES TO EDITORS

The IPPR paper, Adapt or die: Why progressives need to deal with extreme weather, by Sam Alvis and Sofie Jenkinson, is available for download at: https://www.ippr.org/articles/adapt-or-die
The report is part of IPPR’s Decade of National Renewal programme
Persuasion UK polled 3,000 voters in October 2025 via YouGov including a MaxDiff experiment and one Randomised Control Trial message test.
‘Adaptation’ is the collective term for adjustments that allow us to live with the impacts of increasingly extreme weather, driven by climate change– that is, to reduce their risk and the harm they cause. While the impacts vary by sector, the preparations and planning involved in responding to them fall under five broad categories: improving the resilience of infrastructure – for example, pylons that can still transmit as much electricity in heatwaves as they do when there is no heatwave; building new defensive infrastructure, such as flood defences, or restoring nature; making lifestyle changes at home or work – for example, installing air conditioning or having a more Mediterranean style of living such as having a siesta to manage peak heats; preparing for impacts such as developing disaster relief programmes, business continuity plans or strategies for evacuation – expanded insurance schemes are also central to this; changing governance to enforce or monitor the above.
IPPR (the Institute for Public Policy Research) is the UK’s most influential think tank, with alumni in Downing Street, the cabinet and parliament. We are the practical ideas factory behind many of the current government’s flagship policies, including changes to fiscal rules, the creation of a National Wealth Fund, GB Energy, devolution, and reforms to the NHS. As an independent charity working towards a fairer, greener, and more prosperous society, we have spent almost 40 years creating tangible progressive change - turning bold ideas into common sense realities. www.ippr.org
Round Our Way is an organisation which supports people to tell their stories about being impacted by climate change in the UK. From football, fishing, farming and food to classrooms that are too hot and flooded roads that delay medical care – Round Our Way tells the stories of climate change happening in the UK right now. Find out more at https://www.roundourway.org/ and see some examples of people’s stories, including those who have built their own flood defences at https://roundourway.substack.com/