Press Story

IPPR has responded to today’s migration and asylum statistics from the ONS and the Home Office which reveal that:

Net migration in the year ending June 2025 was 204,000, a drop of 445,000 compared to a year earlier. The fall was mostly driven by new rules introduced by the Conservative government which reduced people arriving on study dependant visas and Health and Care visas, alongside a steady rise in emigration.
The asylum backlog (people awaiting an initial decision) at the end of September 2025 was around 62,000 – a fall of more than a third compared to the year before. This reflects success in speeding up initial decision-making. But asylum hotel use is still on the rise, most likely because of the growing appeals backlog.
The number of asylum applications reached a record high of around 110,000 in the year ending September 2025. There has been a rise in asylum applications from people arriving on small boats and from people on study and work visas.

Responding to the migration statistics, Marley Morris, IPPR associate director for migration, trade and communities, said:

“After reaching exceptional highs following the introduction of the post-Brexit migration system, net migration has now plummeted to just over 200,000. Much of this is driven by a sharp decline in student dependants and Health and Care visas under the previous government.

“New reforms by the current government are expected to lead to a further fall. The government will need to be careful to balance the need to manage migration with its other priorities on boosting economic growth, supporting housebuilding, and protecting public services.”

On the asylum figures, Lucy Mort, IPPR principal research fellow and head of qualitative research, said:

“Despite record numbers of claims, the government has made real progress on bringing down the asylum backlog. But this has not translated into a reduction in hotel use.

“This reflects the rising number of people stuck at appeal stage. The government will need to quickly progress its reforms to the appeals system – including a new independent body – as well as fast-track claims from high-grant nationalities. And to end asylum hotels for good, it will need to invest in a new model of community-based temporary accommodation, led by local authorities and housing associations.”

IPPR has today also published new analysis on the government’s emerging approach to asylum and settlement. While the reforms signal a shift towards a more managed system, the analysis highlights where they fall short and where they risk undermining integration.

To be effective, IPPR recommends that the government should focus on expanding the UK-France ‘one-in, one-out’ deal to reduce dangerous crossings, speeding up asylum decision-making and appeals, and promoting integration in communities through fair pathways to settlement. Done properly, these changes could make the system fairer, more sustainable, and better aligned with public expectations.

ENDS

Marley Morris and Amreen Qureshi, research fellow at IPPR, are available for interview

CONTACT

Rosie Okumbe, digital and media officer: 07825 185421 r.okumbe@ippr.org

NOTES TO EDITORS

1. IPPR is the UK’s most influential think tank, with dozens of alumni in Downing Street, the cabinet and parliament. We are the ideas factory behind many of the current government’s flagship policies, including changes to fiscal rules, the creation of a National Wealth Fund, GB Energy, devolution, and reforms to the NHS. IPPR is an independent charity which has seconded staff to government departments including DHSC and DESNZ to support ministers on crucial policies such as the 10-year health plan and the industrial strategy: www.ippr.org

2. IPPR’s new analysis of the government’s recent proposed reforms to policy on asylum and settlement, published today, can be found here: www.ippr.org/articles/a-paradigm-shift-in-asylum-and-immigration-policy.