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IPPR’s initial analysis reveals:

Grants of permanent residence documentation to EU nationals (and non-EU dependents with settlement rights under EU regulations) have surged in the July-September period to 14,000, an increase of more than 40 per cent compared to the last quarter, and more than 3 times higher than the same quarter in 2015. This is likely to reflect an increase in applications mainly made ahead of the EU vote. A rule change introduced by the Home Office in November 2015 means that EU citizens need this documentation as a first step to becoming a UK citizen.
The latest figures on National Insurance numbers issued to EU nationals show little change in the third quarter of the year. This indicates that there is not yet evidence of an immediate substantial Brexit impact on inward flows of EU nationals.
The ONS migration statistics from the International Passenger Survey indicate that net migration continued to be more than 300,000 in the year ending June 2016. Net migration of EU nationals was 189,000, the highest estimate on record. This was prior to the referendum, so cannot tell us anything about the impacts of the Brexit vote on migration patterns.

Phoebe Griffith, IPPR Associate Director for Migration, said:

“There is no evidence yet of Brexit having a big impact yet on the number of Europeans deciding to come to the UK. But the surge in grants for permanent residence - up by 40 per cent following the referendum - show that it is clearly causing concern among EU nationals living in Britain.

“When individuals already in the UK take steps to safeguard their status, barriers should not be put in their way.

“However, at present they are met with long delays and Byzantine bureaucracy. This is not just mean-spirited. It will have concrete impacts. Without security, people will not invest, hire staff, or enrol their children in school.

“Brexit has created great uncertainty. If the government does not wish to guarantee the rights of all EU nationals at this point in the negotiations, it should at the very least prioritise streamlining the process for residence applications.”

Ends

Contact

Kieren Walters 07921 403651 k.walters@ippr.org

Notes

1. IPPR experts are available to comment on today's figures.

2. IPPR aims to influence policy in the present and reinvent progressive politics in the future, and is dedicated to the better country that Britain can be through progressive policy and politics. With nearly 60 staff across four offices throughout the UK, IPPR is Britain’s only national think tank with a truly national presence.

Our independent research is wide ranging, it covers the economy, work, skills, transport, democracy, the environment, education, energy, migration and healthcare among many other areas. ippr.org