Restoring security: Understanding the effects of removing the two-child limit across the UK

The policy has caused more than 1.6 million children living in affected households to be deprived of income, pushing child poverty to record highs. It has also disproportionately affected families in parts of the country already facing the greatest economic strain. 

Research by the London School of Economics has shown that the policy has failed to reduce family sizes, one of the stated objectives when the policy was introduced. Instead it has had the effect of punishing children for the so-called ‘sins’ of their parents. Removing it is therefore not only a moral and social choice, but an economic one too – improving living standards today, and helping build a stronger foundation for children’s life chances tomorrow.

In this blog, we summarise the expected impacts on household income and child poverty, drawing on new microsimulation analysis.

How removing the two-child limit boosts incomes across the UK

Our modelling shows that eliminating the policy raises mean household income in every nation and region – but the scale of the gain varies across the country.

Key takeaways

A clear pattern emerges: the nation and regions that benefit the most are those with the highest poverty rates and vice versa.

• Yorkshire and the Humber (+0.32 per cent), Wales (+0.31 per cent) and the North West (+0.30 per cent) see the biggest proportional income increases.
• More affluent regions, where poverty rates are lower – like the South East, East of England and Scotland – see more modest increases.

These differences underline why the two-child limit has been such a geographically uneven policy: it tends to have a greater impact in those areas with higher poverty rates. Figure 1 maps out regional poverty rates by projected gain in incomes

Impact on poverty of ending the policy 

The policy is expected to reduce child poverty by 450,000 by the end of the parliament. Our modelling estimates how these impacts fall across the country.

Key findings 

• The North West sees the largest reduction, with around 90,000 children lifted out of poverty – a reflection of both population size and the concentration of low-income families affected by the policy.
• London, the South East and West Midlands each see reductions of around 50,000, demonstrating that the policy’s effects reach well beyond the traditionally 'poorer' regions.
• Wales, Yorkshire and the Humber and the North East also see very substantial impacts, strengthening the case that abolishing the two-child limit is one of the most powerful tools available to reduce child poverty quickly.
• Across the UK as a whole, these reductions represent one of the single most effective anti-poverty measures available.

What does this all mean? 

The two-child limit has acted as a major driver of rising child poverty over the last decade, with the burden falling most heavily on families in the north of England, the Midlands, and Wales. 

This is not only a matter of lifting incomes – it is about restoring security for families who have been pushed into impossible choices, and giving children a more equal start in life no matter where they grow up. By putting money directly into the pockets of families who need it most, ending the limit will strengthen local economies, support child development, and ease pressure on public services.

In short, removing the two-child limit is the fastest, fairest and most cost-effective way to reduce child poverty across the UK.