The political trust crisis: Why local democracy must start listening again

New polling in Greater Manchester commissioned by IPPR North, The Sortition Foundation and the Electoral Reform Society paints a stark picture of a city region deeply disconnected from many of the institutions meant to serve it.

Greater Manchester has led the way in recent years forging ahead with devolution and successful policy initiatives like taking buses back into public ownership. Yet, despite these successes, this polling reveals that, from Westminster to town halls, too many people no longer believe politics works for them.

If democracy depends on confidence, participation, and legitimacy, then these findings from Greater Manchester should be sounding the alarm all across the country.

Trust in politics has hit rock bottom

Political trust is the essential foundation of a well-functioning democracy. 

When trust falls, participation often follows. Recent elections already show the warning signs. In many of Greater Manchester’s ten councils, fewer than one in three registered voters cast a ballot in the 2024 local elections. Turnout in the 2024 mayoral election also dropped in every borough compared with 2021. When people stop believing politics can improve their lives, many simply stop taking part.

But disengagement is only part of the story. Low trust also creates fertile ground for populism. Our polling suggests that support for populist parties on both the right and left has grown significantly across Greater Manchester over the last two years. If mainstream politics cannot rebuild credibility with voters, others will rush to fill the vacuum. This may have an effect on the composition of councils across the city region after the local elections.

The strongest performer is the Greater Manchester Mayor with 24 per cent expressing high levels of trust.

Why trust matters more than ever

Political trust is the essential foundation of a well-functioning democracy. 

When trust falls, participation often follows. Recent elections already show the warning signs. In many of Greater Manchester’s ten councils, fewer than one in three registered voters cast a ballot in the 2024 local elections. Turnout in the 2024 mayoral election also dropped in every borough compared with 2021. When people stop believing politics can improve their lives, many simply stop taking part.

But disengagement is only part of the story. Low trust also creates fertile ground for populism. Our polling suggests that support for populist parties on both the right and left has grown significantly across Greater Manchester over the last two years. If mainstream politics cannot rebuild credibility with voters, others will rush to fill the vacuum. This may have an effect on the composition of councils across the city region after the local elections.

People feel politics happens to them

Why is trust so low? 

A lack of satisfaction with political delivery at the national level when it comes the performance of public services, weak levels of economic growth and plateauing living standards over recent years likely plays a part. So too does perceptions of local government delivery following a decade of austerity from 2010, shrinking budgets, and growing demand for essential statutory services that have left many local authorities overstretched. Meanwhile, the media environment fosters political polarisation and fuels distrust. 

But another likely explanation of low levels of political trust is that many people feel politics is something that is done to them, not with them. Nearly half of Greater Manchester residents say they do not trust the UK Parliament to listen and act in the interests of their local area. Worryingly, a third feel the same about their local council and councillors. This sense of voicelessness matters. If people believe leaders neither hear nor understand them or their places, trust becomes almost impossible to sustain.

Greater Manchester has managed to deliver more than most regions for citizens in recent years. Leading the way on devolution and delivering levels of economic growth above the English average. Yet as these polling figures suggest, there is a real danger than local and devolved government begins to appear to citizen’s to be as remote and unresponsive as Westminster. 

The case for giving citizens real power

Part of the answer to improving political trust must lie in local democratic experimentation. Devolution offers places the chance to do democracy differently, and to trial new approaches that might bridge the gap between citizens and politicians and allow us to break out of the low trust status quo.

As a recent IPPR North report set out, residents need meaningful opportunities to shape the decisions that affect their communities. That should involve moving beyond consultation exercises and embracing participatory democracy.

Councils across Greater Manchester could lead the way by creating deliberative forums where residents and decision-makers can work together, discuss priorities, and rebuild confidence through genuine dialogue. This could include embedding co-production with citizens in service delivery, as well as giving citizens a real say over how resources are spent through participatory budgeting. 

Beyond this, citizens’ assemblies may be another potentially powerful tool to give citizens greater agency in our democracy. These forums bring together representative groups of ordinary people to examine issues, hear evidence, and make recommendations. They are already becoming more common in local government across the UK, with more than 40 local citizens’ assemblies or juries held since 2019.

And crucially, the public is open to the idea. 

Although awareness of citizens’ assemblies remains relatively low, once the concept was explained, 59 per cent of Greater Manchester residents supported creating a Citizens’ Assembly for the city region. 

Rather than being used a one-off quick fix, there is a strong case to strengthen local democracy in Greater Manchester and elsewhere by adopting participatory models on a more permanent basis as has been done with success elsewhere, most notably in Paris. The assembly there, comprised of 100 randomly selected citizens, has not only bolstered public deliberation, but also played a lead role in drafting legislation that has been adopted by the City Council.

No single reform can undo years of distrust overnight. But through local democratic experimentation, and utilising and embedding more participatory approaches there is a chance to offer something politics desperately lacks right now: a way for people to feel heard, respected, and involved. 

A chance to rebuild local democracy

Upcoming local elections will shape who governs Greater Manchester’s boroughs and councils all across the country. A key question after these contests must be how local leaders do democracy differently and experiment with new approaches to improve public satisfaction. If leaders continue with politics as usual, trust may sink even further. If they choose to share power, listen seriously, and bring citizens into decision-making, we may have a chance to begin the journey of improving political trust.