Press Story

Children are nearly a quarter of the 1.35 million legal migrants whose wait for certainty could be extended by at least five years
Delayed green light to settle permanently undermines integration, limits opportunities and increases risk of child poverty
IPPR calls for clear guidance to protect workers and families from ‘unfair’ retrospective changes

Over 300,000 children already living in the UK could be forced to wait 10 years for settled status under proposed changes to the Home Office’s “earned settlement” policy, according to new analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).

The policy would double the default qualifying period for settlement from five to 10 years, with shorter or longer waits for certain visa holders. For people in below-graduate level jobs – including many care workers – the default will be extended to 15 years.

The analysis reveals that nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of the 1.35 million people already on routes to settlement are children, most of them dependants on their families’ work visas.

If applied retrospectively, the changes could penalise people who arrived under different rules and made life-changing decisions based on the expectations at that time. Proposals would dramatically extend insecurity for families, with damaging consequences for integration, educational opportunities and child poverty.

Hundreds of thousands of children may now grow up without secure status, limiting their ability to plan for the future. Delayed settlement could restrict access to higher education, student finance and stable employment opportunities later in life.

Meanwhile, parents may be locked out of the support their families need through restricted access to benefits, increasing the risk of child poverty among households on low incomes – including care workers and other essential roles.

IPPR has previously argued that long pathways to settlement threaten wider economic goals Keeping people in prolonged insecurity holds them back from investing in skills, changing jobs, or putting down roots. A settlement system that keeps people in limbo for a decade or more also risks undermining the UK’s ability to attract and retain workers it still needs and runs counter to the government’s ambitions for growth.

The proposals also risk blurring the lines between contribution and punishment, IPPR says. While the government argues that “earned settlement” will incentivise integration, applying these rules to those already here could have the opposite effect, breeding insecurity and demoralisation rather than stronger social and economic participation.

At a minimum, IPPR is calling on the government to introduce a clear clause to protect those already on routes to settlement from retrospective changes.

The think tank proposes six principles for the design of the earned settlement system to make sure they are based on contribution, integration and fairness – promoting economic participation, encouraging community involvement, supporting child poverty goals, attracting and retaining talent, setting out clear and navigable rules, and ensuring fair, consistent treatment for migrants already on routes to settlement.

Marley Morris, associate director for migration trade and communities at IPPR, said:

“Families who were welcomed to the UK under one set of rules should not have the goalposts moved part way through their journey. It’s simply unfair to apply these rules retrospectively. For the 300,000 children affected, this is not an abstract policy change. They face growing up with prolonged insecurity, with many facing new barriers to going to university once they turn 18.

“If the government is serious about integration and tackling child poverty, it cannot design a system that keeps families and children, many of whom will eventually become our fellow citizens, in limbo for a decade or more. This has both a human and an economic cost. Protecting those already here would be the simplest and most effective way to avoid long-term harm.”

Zayne, 18, who is currently on the five-year route to settlement but faces an extension to 10 years under the proposed changes, said:

“My dad is an NHS doctor and chose to work in the UK because he believed in the rules and the promise of stability. He gave up better-paid work abroad, sold our house and car, and spent thousands doing everything right - only to be told, a month before we qualify, that the rules have changed.

“I’m 18 years old, I’ve worked hard for my A-levels, and I want to study medicine, but without access to student finance I simply can’t afford university here. My mum cries every day because our whole future feels like it’s been pulled away overnight. We came here for stability and to live together as a family. Now even the language around these policies is affecting my daily life, with people telling me to ‘go back home’ while I’m working. It feels like we followed every rule and still lost everything we planned for.”

ENDS

Marley Morris, IPPR associate director for migration, trade and communities and author of the analysis, is available for interview

CONTACT

Liam Evans, head of news and media: 07419 365 334 l.evans@ippr.org

David Wastell, director of news and communications: 07921 403651 d.wastell@ippr.org

NOTES TO EDITORS

The IPPR paper, Far from settled: The government’s ‘earned settlement’ consultation, by Marley Morris, will be available for download at: https://www.ippr.org/articles/far-from-settled-the-governments-earned-settlement-consultation
Advance copies of the report are available under embargo on request
The analysis uses the Home Office’s Migrant Journey dataset to estimate the number of people who will face a default longer route to settlement under the government’s proposals. It focuses on the default qualifying period and does not take into account adjustments on the basis of individual characteristics such as salary, language proficiency, and volunteering. Age breakdowns were provided by the Home Office following an IPPR freedom of information request.
The estimate is based on migrants whose year of initial leave was 2021 or later and who, at the end of 2024, were on routes to settlement which are subject to the new policy. The analysis includes workers, people with refugee permission, and resettled refugees. It excludes people on temporary immigration routes (eg students) or on routes which will continue to face a 5-year default qualifying period (eg BN(O) visa holders).
IPPR (the Institute for Public Policy Research) is the UK’s most influential think tank, with alumni in Downing Street, the cabinet and parliament. We are the practical ideas factory behind many of the current government’s flagship policies, including changes to fiscal rules, the creation of a National Wealth Fund, GB Energy, devolution, and reforms to the NHS. As an independent charity working towards a fairer, greener, and more prosperous society, we have spent almost 40 years creating tangible progressive change - turning bold ideas into common sense realities. www.ippr.org