Brexit has cut UK exports to the EU by 14.5 per cent, costing the economy £18.1bn a year, finds IPPR

New research from IPPR has found that:

• Reduced goods exports to the EU due to Brexit have cost the UK economy an estimated £18.1bn per year
• Reduced goods exports to the EU due to Brexit costs us 0.63 per cent of GDP per year
• As a result of Brexit, ours goods exports to the EU are an estimated 14.5 per cent lower than they would have been otherwise

Laura Chappell, associate director at IPPR, said:

“Brexit has put a persistent drag on Britain’s economy. Our analysis shows that reduced goods exports to the EU are costing the UK around £18.1 billion a year — equivalent to 0.63 per cent of GDP — with EU exports 14.5 per cent lower than they otherwise would have been.  

At a time of weak growth, squeezed living standards and strained public finances, this is a cost the country can ill afford. The government should be honest about the economic damage being done and pursue an even closer, more pragmatic trading relationship with Europe to support jobs, investment and growth.”

ENDS

Marley Morris and Laura Chappell are available for interview  

CONTACT

Liam Evans, head of news and media, 07419 365 334 l.evans@ippr.org

NOTES TO EDITORS

• METHODOLOGY: This work replicates analysis undertaken previously by academics Janez Kren and Martina Lawless. Our analysis extends their approach using data to 2024. It also makes some adjustments to ensure that the results are robust. This includes dropping re-exports and 2020 (the main Covid year) from the data sample. To calculate the effect on GDP, we take the value of lost trade in monetary terms, and attempt to strip out the imported component of UK exports.
• IPPR is the UK’s most influential think tank, with alumni in Downing Street, the cabinet and parliament. We are the ideas factory behind many of the current government’s flagship policies, including changes to fiscal rules, the creation of a National Wealth Fund, GB Energy, devolution, and reforms to the NHS. IPPR is an independent charity which has seconded staff to government departments including DHSC and DESNZ to support ministers on crucial policies such as the 10-year health plan and the industrial strategy: www.ippr.org