Revealed: Homelessness set to rise by 25 per cent without targeted action, say IPPR North and IPPR

• New analysis reveals rates of homelessness are set to increase by 25 per cent by the end of the decade without intervention
• Think tanks call for new government to fund national homelessness programme, taking empty homes and turning them into sanctuaries
• Researchers urge that Andy Burnham’s “national housing first philosophy” must be enacted quickly to support those at the sharpest end of the housing crisis 

Homelessness across England is on course to rise by 25 per cent by the end of the decade without government action, according to new analysis by IPPR North and IPPR. 

That would mean an additional 50,000 people without a roof over their head or at risk of rough sleeping. 

In a new report, the think tanks urge the new government to roll out a national programme to provide access to shelter and support for those who are sleeping rough or imminently at risk, inspired by Greater Manchester’s “A Bed Every Night” programme. 

Authors also call for urgent support so councils can bring long-term empty homes back into use, quickly boosting housing numbers and reducing reliance on expensive and poor-quality temporary accommodation. 

The report warns that the current system is failing people at the sharpest end of the housing crisis, fuelled by rising living costs and increasingly unaffordable rents. 

This failure comes at a growing cost to the public purse. Councils are already being pushed closer to bankruptcy as billions are spent on costly, ineffective temporary accommodation including hostels and B&Bs often charged at high nightly rates. Yet, this system offers neither stability nor a genuine pathway out of homelessness. 

Instead, the report calls for a national shift to a housing-led approach - where access to secure homes is offered as quickly as possible, with additional support provided as needed. This is both more effective for individuals and better value for taxpayers. 

There are currently thousands of homes classed as “long term vacant”, sitting empty and unused while people are sleeping on the streets. The new government is urged to reverse 40 years of ‘Right to Buy’ depleting social housing stock, by funding programmes that allow councils to bring these homes back into circulation – housing the most vulnerable and saving taxpayers and councils money while bringing benefits to communities. 

Researchers investigated three regions in England that have already adopted housing-led approaches to homelessness with devolved powers, including Greater Manchester Combined Authority, North East Mayoral Strategic Authority, and Oxfordshire County Council. 

They identified several barriers to implementing housing-led approaches, most notably, a lack of social housing supply, which is acutely holding back meaningful attempts to eradicate homelessness. 

The recommendations come amid renewed political debate over homelessness following Labour leadership candidate Andy Burnham's call for a "national housing first philosophy". 

While the National Plan to End Homelessness is a step in the right direction, the authors argue that in the immediate future, vulnerable households will remain trapped in a costly and unstable system of temporary accommodation unless government acts to increase access to secure homes.

IPPR and IPPR North recommendations include:

• A programme to bring long-term empty homes into circulation so councils can rapidly increase social housing supply and reduce reliance on costly temporary accommodation
• Mayors should use their strategic planning powers and further devolution to set ambitious targets for social housing
• New duties on registered providers to work with councils to house people experiencing homelessness, strengthening obligations to cooperate.

Dr Maya Singer Hobbs, author and senior research fellow at IPPR, says:

“People going through what might be the toughest time of their lives need stability and support, and that starts by having a place to call home.

“Housing-led approaches are about making sure that people can get the support they need, while also having a permanent roof over their heads and certainty over where they will live.

“We know these approaches work. We just need government to help support councils and mayors to put them into practice.”

Pixie*, 49, from Oxfordshire was supported by Crisis into settled accommodation provided by a housing association.

“When I became homeless, I was having to sofa surf with my dog. I also stayed in a tent for two weeks. Then, I was placed in temporary accommodation which wasn’t suitable.

“There was one B&B which I will never forget as it had no cooking facilities, not even a fridge. I also had to share the bathroom with men which made me feel unsafe and exacerbated my anxiety. When you’re living in temporary accommodation you sleep with one eye open, especially as a single female and as someone who has gone through domestic abuse.

“Now, being settled into a home, I’ve really improved my confidence. Having somewhere stable to live and support from a therapist to help me understand some of the issues I’ve struggled with, I feel like I’ve been able to find out who I really am instead of having to change myself to suit others.”

ENDS

Contact: Maeve Schaffer, communications lead IPPR North, on 07585772633 or m.schaffer@ippr.org

NOTES:

Maya Singer Hobbs available for interview.

Case studies available for interview on request.

The IPPR and IPPR North paper, Home Truths: Housing-led approaches to homelessness, by Dr Maya Singer Hobbs, India Gerritsen, and Aleisha Omeike, will be available for download at: https://www.ippr.org/articles/home-truths 

IPPR North is the leading think-tank in the north of England, developing bold ideas for a stronger economy and prosperous places and people. For more information, visit ippr.org/north.

IPPR (the Institute for Public Policy Research) is the UK’s most influential think tank, with alumni in Downing Street, the cabinet and parliament. As an independent charity working towards a fairer, greener, and more prosperous society, we have spent almost 40 years creating tangible progressive change - turning bold ideas into common sense realities. www.ippr.org

Methodology:

1. Rate of homelessness increase calculated using MHCLG Statutory Homelessness data on people with ‘relief duty owed’ from 2018/19 to 2024/25, and extrapolating forward to 2029/30 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-homelessness)