Press Story

For immediate release

Fresh IPPR Scotland polling has found a growing disconnect between the public’s priorities and the political debate ahead of next year’s Scottish parliamentary election.

The polling, conducted by Diffley Partnership for IPPR Scotland, shows that voters are deeply concerned about the NHS, cost of living, and inequality – but lack confidence in politicians to deliver solutions. This lack of trust also extends to taxation and net zero commitments.

Scottish politicians must “raise their game”, the think tank has warned, if they are serious about the challenges facing Scotland today and the credible solutions needed to address them.

In an analysis published today, IPPR Scotland researchers said that one-third of Scottish people feel negatively about Scotland’s future, with 32 per cent anticipating less economic equality over the course of the next Scottish parliament, compared to 14 per cent who think Scotland will become more equal.

The public lacks confidence that their priorities will be delivered, with more than half doubting the next Scottish government’s ability to provide high quality health and care services.

Voters overwhelmingly prioritize the NHS with 86 per cent saying its improvement is important to Scotland’s future. However, most underestimate the scale of the challenges it faces, with nearly half of the voters (47 per cent) thinking taxes are already too high. This, despite widespread recognition among experts, that healthcare services are under severe strain and funding will need to continue to rise as the population ages.

Voters are reluctant to see tax increases even when they recognise public services need more funding, with 44 per cent saying they don’t trust that the government will spend additional tax wisely.

While cost of living dominates voters’ concerns, only 54 per cent see tackling climate change as important to Scotland’s future. The researchers say that worsening climate impacts – including falling crop yields and rising food prices – are deepening the cost-of-living crisis.

On the political front, Reform UK has attained an unprecedented level of support in Scotland. It has emerged second in both constituency and regional list voting intention in the poll, drawing voters from across the political spectrum, particularly from Labour and the Conservatives.

Stephen Boyd, IPPR Scotland director, said:

The polling results are not entirely bleak. More voters are positive than negative about Scotland’s future. SNP, Labour and the Green voters are more optimistic than supporters of other parties. The findings suggest that campaigns which offer a hopeful, credible vision for the future could resonate strongly with the electorate.

We can also see in these results that younger voters are both the most positive and the most undecided group in Scotland’s electorate. Many have balanced priorities across climate, health, and poverty – but are much less likely to say they will vote.

If political parties engage with younger voters and inspire them, they could significantly shape next year’s results.

AVAILABLE FOR INTERVIEW: 

IPPR Scotland director Stephen Boyd is available for interviews.

CONTACT:

If you’d like to attend the conference, contact Sukhada Tatke, media and impact officer at IPPR Scotland: s.tatke@ippr.org 07901169121

NOTE TO EDITORS: 

IPPR Scotland shapes public policy in pursuit of a fairer, greener, more prosperous Scotland.