Press Story

Poor polling and local election results for Labour are part of western trend in which populists now claim a larger share of the vote (30 per cent) than the centre-left (24 per cent)
David Miliband warns of danger that centre-left parties facing right wing populism are seen as “defending the status quo even as voters say it is failing”
IPPR launches generational project to develop 21st century identity for centre-left

The think tank often credited as providing the policies and personnel behind New Labour has today launched a project to replace the ‘third way’ with a new modern identity to drive the next generation of progressive politicians and thinkers.

The paper from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) marks the launch of its new Decade of National Renewal project which will conclude in 18 months' time.

Weeks after historic local elections which saw Labour take just one in five votes, compared to Reform which won almost one in three, the think tank says these results are part of a global shift away from the centre-left towards the populist right, who are increasingly seen as the ‘go-to’ parties of change.

New analysis reveals that since the 1980s, the share of votes in Western Europe and North America for centre-left parties has fallen by more than a quarter (from 33 per cent to 24 per cent), while the share for populist parties increased two and half times (from 12 per cent to 30 per cent). This growth has been driven by populist right parties, which have grown six times more quickly than populist left parties since the start of the century.

One of the key challenges the authors identify for progressive parties is the decline of working-class support. New data shows those in working-class jobs make up only 7 per cent of the British left’s voter coalition today, down from 40 per cent in 1980. Across Europe, they make up 10 per cent of the left’s coalition, down from 30 per cent.

This has given the populist right an opening to steal the left’s historic claim to being for the many, not the few, the report says. People who have not been to university, historically associated with left-leaning parties, increasingly align themselves with the populist right, while the opposite is true for graduates. In the 2024 general election, Reform's vote share was over double in the 50 constituencies with the least education, training and skills compared to the 50 most.

There is also particular concern among progressive parties about losing the young vote. More than one in five young people (age 18-30) in France are voting for populist radical right parties, while in Italy 70 per cent of young men and women supported populist parties in the 2010s. In Sweden, in recent elections, up to one in five young men voted for populist radical right parties, compared to under one in 15 young women.

Centre-left parties must re-invent or die, the report effectively warns. They cannot try to re-hash the out-of-date 'Third Way’, but nor should they ape the populist right. Other schools of thought developed in a different era, like Blue Labour, fail to respond to how the world has changed or provide modern, distinctive ideas and prescriptions. The report provides new analysis on the three big challenges progressives need to meet and master:

National borders are being reasserted: a quarter of the electorate across liberal democracies now support anti-immigration parties, the number of trade restrictions imposed annually since 2016 had increased sixfold even before Trump took office again, and armed conflicts and conflict-related deaths are at a three-decade high
Broken faith in markets: since Labour last took power, shareholder payouts as a proportion of profits have tripled in the biggest British firms and the share of working households in poverty has increased 27 per cent, meanwhile half of 18 to 34-year olds now live with their parents, up 30 per cent since 2003
No more common ground: half of adults are now using social media as their main news source as regular newspaper readership halved three times in the last three decades, while the share of Britons who are part of a church (33 per cent), union (63 per cent), or social club (77 per cent) has declined across the board since 1995

These grand challenges, and the rise of right-wing authoritarians, highlight a clear and urgent need for a programme of renewal for the centre left.

IPPR will spend the next 18 months reimagining the progressive project, from reconceptualising the role of the state in the economy to redefining citizenship and reinventing the social contract.

Dr Parth Patel, associate director at IPPR, said:

“Progressives are losing ground not only in the battle of votes but the battle of ideas against the populist radical right. They are stealing the left’s claim as the go-to people to change society. Progressive parties are seen as defenders of the status quo instead of vehicles of change.

“The problem is that the progressive engine of ideas seems to have run out of steam. When leaders don’t appear to have new ideas, they reach back for old ones, or imitate their opponents. That will not work at a moment of great change and challenge.

“This project is trying to find the thing that replaces the Third Way. We will offer a sense of what progressive parties could stand for in the future, not the past: a new left for a new age.”

David Miliband, former foreign secretary, who has written the foreword for the report, said:

“The policy and political environment both at home and abroad is in dramatic flux. The danger for all parties, but perhaps especially centre-left parties facing right wing populism, is obvious: they are perceived to be defending the status quo even as voters say it is failing. This exacerbates a challenge that any government faces: the pressures of government squeeze the time and space for thinking, brainstorming, debate.

“The questions being asked in this IPPR report open up discussion in a way that should help those with the power to shape the country’s future. As someone who got their start at IPPR, I am delighted that the organisation continues to be a home for creative thinking.

“Get it right and you get a virtuous circle of social, political and economic renewal, in which security and opportunity reinforce each other. That is what happened after Labour was elected in 1945 and 1997, and what is needed again. The policies of those periods are time-bound; no one is suggesting those policies should be regurgitated. But the lessons in how new ideas can power new politics are important.”

ENDS

Dr Parth Patel, the report’s author and head of IPPR’s Decade of National Renewal programme, and Harry Quilter-Pinner, IPPR executive director, are available for interview

CONTACT

David Wastell, director of news and communications: 07921 403651 d.wastell@ippr.org
Liam Evans, senior digital and media officer: 07419 365334 l.evans@ippr.org
Rosie Okumbe, digital and media officer: 07825 185421 r.okumbe@ippr.org

NOTES TO EDITORS

The IPPR paper, Facing the future: Progressives in a changing world, by Dr Parth Patel (associate director at IPPR), Nick Garland (associate fellow at IPPR and former advisor and speechwriter to Rachel Reeves), Jane Gingrich (associate fellow at IPPR and professor at the university of Oxford) and Will Davies (associate fellow and professor at Goldsmiths university), will be published at 00:01 on Friday 23 May 2025. It will be available for download at: www.ippr.org/articles/facing-the-future-progressives-changing-world
Advance copies of the report are available under embargo on request.
The electoral trends in western Europe and North America are based on the authors’ analysis of the V-Party dataset and Chapel Hill Expert Survey.
The share of left parties’ voter base by employed class group is based on authors’ analysis of the European Social Survey and Eurobarometer data. Please note the class groups include only currently employed workers (not spouses or retired people).
The share of young people (18- to 24-year-olds) in selected countries voting for populist radical right parties is based on authors’ analysis of the European Social Survey.
Statistics used to support ‘national borders are being reasserted’ are based on authors’ analysis.
Shareholder payouts are based on the 110 biggest firms listed consistently on the UK stock exchange since 1995.
IPPR (the Institute for Public Policy Research) is an independent charity working towards a fairer, greener, and more prosperous society. We are researchers, communicators, and policy experts creating tangible progressive change, and turning bold ideas into common sense realities. Working across the UK, IPPR, IPPR North, and IPPR Scotland are deeply connected to the people of our nations and regions, and the issues our communities face. We have helped shape national conversations and progressive policy change for more than 30 years. From making the early case for the minimum wage and tackling regional inequality, to proposing a windfall tax on energy companies, IPPR’s research and policy work has put forward practical solutions for the crises facing society. www.ippr.org