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New IPPR Scotland analysis of voting patterns shows the election campaign did little to inspire people in Scotland to go to the ballot box. The researchers suggest policies of progressive parties are drifting away from the values of their voters, particularly on climate and public services.

Comparing turnout at the 2026 and 2021 Holyrood elections, researchers found:

On the right wing of politics voters are making different choices, but there is no evidence the size of the right wing has grown: the combined turnout for Reform and the Conservatives increased by less than one percentage point.
The Greens, Labour and Liberal Democrats each saw relatively small changes in turnout, with their collective performance changing by just 1.3 points.
The 10-percentage point reduction in overall voter turnout at the election closely tracks the decline in SNP voter turnout which fell 11.1 percentage points on the list and 9.9 points on the constituency vote.

To explore why progressive parties struggled to get their votes out, IPPR Scotland drew on polling of Scottish voters in the weeks prior to the Holyrood election, conducted by independent pollsters, Persuasion UK.

The researchers found the majority of people want to see a government that reflects their values (54 per cent) over one that reflects different values even if it fixes the issues in their day-to-day lives (36 per cent). Among supporters of the SNP, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens the emphasis on values is even more accentuated at 63 per cent to 31 per cent.

Climate is a policy area that shows this balance toward values, reflecting concern for the environment and future generations. The polling found majority support for net zero at 61 per cent across Scotland, with even higher support among SNP, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Green voters at 76 per cent. Furthermore, for more of these parties’ voters (18 per cent) climate and environment shaped their vote compared with the future of the North Sea oil and gas industry (10 per cent).

The researchers argued that a stronger values-led position on climate would have helped parties inspire more people to come out and vote for them. Instead, comparison of 2026 and 2021 manifestos revealed all parties had reduced their emphasis on climate.

The polling results revealed the public are already dissatisfied with the state of public services, with 44 per cent saying failing public services are leading to Scotland’s challenges. Yet during the campaign, politicians frequently argued that Scotland needs to reduce the size of the public sector. Previous IPPR Scotland research has highlighted the likelihood that cutting public sector employment will damage public service provision.

Dave Hawkey, Senior Research Fellow at IPPR Scotland, said:

“The uninspired, lethargic campaign led to a ten-percentage point reduction in voter turnout. In place of a coherent account of a good society to build towards, the manifestos tended toward shopping lists of measures designed to appeal to specific constituencies’ own interests.

“But people in Scotland want a government to reflect their values, which include climate action and adequately resourcing public services. Backsliding on these issues will become increasingly untenable as climate damages continue to mount up and cutting public sector employment risks damaging services. Progressive politicians must step up over the seventh session of the Scottish Parliament if they hope to win support from voters".

AVAILABLE FOR INTERVIEWS:

Dave Hawkey, senior research fellow at IPPR Scotland, is available for interviews.

CONTACT:

Sukhada Tatke, media and impact officer at IPPR Scotland s.tatke@ippr.org 07901169121

NOTES TO EDITORS:

The blog “Constructive coalitions? What the election means for the seventh session of the Scottish Parliament” is at https://www.ippr.org/articles/constructive-coalitions-what-the-election-means-for-the-seventh-session-of-the-scottish-parliament
Persuasion UK commissioned YouGov who polled 1,603 adults in Scotland ahead of the election, between 24th April - 5th May 2026.
IPPR Scotland pre-election analysis of party manifestos found SNP, Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens all mentioned climate change significantly fewer times in their 2026 Scottish Parliament manifestos than in their 2021 equivalents. https://www.ippr.org/articles/must-try-harder-do-the-manifestos-meet-our-tests
IPPR Scotland research earlier this year found the Scottish government’s public sector reform strategy risks sliding back into austerity. Budget-driven targets to reduce public sector headcount do not take into account growing pressures on public services, including those arising from Scotland’s ageing demographic and the transfer of responsibilities to the Scottish government post-Brexit. https://www.ippr.org/articles/more-for-less-scottish-public-services
IPPR Scotland shapes public policy in pursuit of a fairer, greener, more prosperous Scotland.