Press Story

As prime minister puts options for EU relationship on table, IPPR says full membership should be medium-term goal
‘Time to stop talking about Brexit’ and focus on future in a Europe that has changed in a world that has changed, IPPR says
Majority back EU membership across stress test of tough trade-offs, unique new research reveals
Think tank urges government to begin by building durable political support for EU

As the prime minister opens up a debate over Britain’s future relationship with Europe, a major new IPPR report argues that becoming a member of the EU should be the UK’s medium-term goal.

The research argues that the assumptions underpinning the UK’s foreign and economic policy have broken down in the face of Russian aggression, an unpredictable United States and growing economic coercion from China.

In a world increasingly organised around large economic and security blocs, IPPR argues that the UK lacks the scale to protect its prosperity, security and democratic institutions alone.

The report welcomes the shift towards a wider debate about the UK’s relationship with Europe. It argues that this must now go beyond piece-by-piece negotiations over trade and regulation. Instead, the UK should begin a sustained political rebuild with Europe, with the medium-term objective of securing a democratic mandate for EU membership.

New polling commissioned by IPPR and Persuasion UK finds that a majority of voters want a closer relationship with Europe. More than half (52 per cent) want to join the EU, compared with less than a third (29 per cent) who want to stay out. Among those expressing a view, that is a 64–36 split, leaving 10 per cent who ‘don’t know’ and nine per cent opting out of voting. Even among Labour voters considering switching to Reform, 54 per cent want to join the EU, compared with 36 per cent who want to stay out.

In a separate and unique conjoint experiment, voters were shown different combinations of benefits, costs, and arguments for and against joining the EU. They were given only two options: to accept the deal, or not. In this, average headline support for EU membership was 52 per cent.

The research suggests that staying as we are also carries political risk. When voters were presented with different approaches to Europe, maintaining the UK’s current relationship with the EU appeared to be the least popular option. While voters differ over exactly what a closer relationship should look like, the findings point to a broad appetite for change rather than simply preserving the post-Brexit status quo.

The report argues that the EU that Britain would join today is fundamentally different from the one it left. The EU is increasingly becoming a major security, industrial and economic actor, ramping up defence spending, pursuing continent-wide industrial policy and taking a more active role in protecting strategic supply chains. Yet British politics is still debating its relationship with the EU of a decade ago.

In an effort to move the conversation into 2026, IPPR says the government should develop a new Europe strategy, which should include:

Working with the EU to deliver continent-wide industrial policy, under which the UK would open its public procurement market to European firms in return for the EU doing the same for the UK
Creating a European Defence Alliance, with the UK offering capabilities where Europe remains heavily dependent on the US, including satellite communications
Once consent is stronger, gaining a mandate to join the EU, either through a fresh referendum or a clear manifesto commitment

The report argues that the UK’s loss of agency and control in today’s fractured world requires us to join forces with Europe as much as possible – and politicians should immediately start building the durable majority that would make that happen.

Harry Quilter-Pinner, IPPR executive director, said:

“The world Britain built its post-Brexit strategy for no longer exists. We are entering an age in which economic strength, security and political influence increasingly depend on scale, and Britain cannot manufacture that scale on its own.

“The government has made important progress in repairing relations with Europe, but a series of individual deals will not be enough. There is one option which is best for the UK’s relationship with Europe – membership of the EU. That does not mean announcing another referendum tomorrow. But this means starting work to move towards this destination, building political support at home and in Europe.”

Laura Chappell, associate director at IPPR, said:

"It’s time to stop talking about Brexit and focus entirely on the future. A lot has changed over the past decade. The prime minister has said his mission is to give people back control, but Britain can’t do that alone anymore.

“Whether it's protecting households from swings in the cost of living, restarting industry, or keeping us secure, we lack the weight to act alone. In today’s world, we can’t take back control while being an outsider in Europe.”

ENDS

Laura Chappell, Mihir Sharma and Tazu Walden, authors of two new IPPR papers, and Harry Quilter-Pinner, IPPR executive director, are available for interview

CONTACT

Rosie Okumbe, senior digital and media officer: 07825 185421 r.okumbe@ippr.org

David Wastell, director of news and communications: 07921 403651 d.wastell@ippr.org

NOTES TO EDITORS

The IPPR report, New world, new relationship: Our future in Europe, by Laura Chappell and Mihir Sharma, will be published at 0001 on Monday October 19. It will be available for download at: https://www.ippr.org/articles/new-world-new-relationship
The accompanying IPPR briefing paper, A durable majority? How public opinion on the EU performs under pressure, by Tazu Walden, which covers the polling in detail, will be published at the same time. It will be available for download at: https://www.ippr.org/articles/a-durable-majority
Advance copies of the papers are available under embargo on request.
The research sits alongside Persuasion UK and IPPR public opinion work, which will be available for download at https://persuasionuk.org/research/brexit-rejoin-stress-testing
Public opinion work was conducted by Persuasion UK in three waves: 11–15 June 2026 baseline polling (3,039 respondents), a 25–30 June 2026 conjoint experiment (2,907 respondents).
The baseline poll tested attitudes to rejoining the EU. Raw support for rejoin was 52, ‘stay out’ 29, ‘don’t know’ 10 per cent, ‘I wouldn’t vote’ 9 per cent. When these are stripped out, headline support is 64-36.
The conjoint experiment stress tested a rejoin platform and a closer economic relationship option involving budget contributions and a customs union, but not freedom of movement or single market membership. Respondents were shown different benefits, obligations, trade-offs and arguments for and against each option and asked whether they would accept a proposed deal to rejoin / closer relationship. The figures represented are averages of these results.