Press Story

Record high numbers of young people fear long-term unemployment
Share who think they will be successful has fallen sharply in last decade
IPPR warns declining optimism risks becoming an economic as well as social crisis for Gen Z

Young people across England are becoming markedly less optimistic about their futures, according to new analysis by IPPR, with growing numbers doubting they will be successful and fearing they could face long-term unemployment.

The analysis finds that 16–21-year-olds have lowered their expectations as housing becomes less affordable, secure work harder to find, and the traditional pathways to adulthood feel increasingly out of reach.

The share of young people who expect to become long-term unemployed or have little chance of success in life has roughly tripled over the past decade.

In 2015, just one in 50 young people believed they were likely to become long-term unemployed. Today, that figure stands at around one in 14, with young women more likely to expect unemployment than young men.

Likewise, less than one in 50 young people believed there was a low chance of them becoming successful. Ten years later, it's roughly one in 17.

The belief in meritocracy also appears to be undermined, as only one in 4 young people now believe everyone has a fair chance to go as far as their talent and hard work will take them.

The trends are evident across all levels of deprivation, suggesting pessimism is no longer confined to the most disadvantaged communities. However, young people in deprived areas remain more worried about unemployment.

The sharpest divide is linked to mental health. The share who believes long-term unemployment is likely for them has doubled in recent years.

IPPR warns this growing pessimism could have profound economic consequences if young people increasingly disengage from work, lower their ambitions, or lose faith that effort will lead to a better life.

The think tank points to emerging evidence of “financial nihilism”, where younger generations respond to insecurity by working less, taking greater financial risks like investing in cryptocurrency, and abandoning long-term economic planning.

IPPR has launched an ambitious programme of work to provide a holistic and honest account of how young people are faring today. A State of a Generation will publish its first report in Autumn 2026.

Ellie Harris, principal research fellow and head of children and young people at IPPR, said:

“Young people are telling us clearly that the deal no longer adds up. For too many, the promise that hard work will lead to security and opportunity no longer feels credible.

“This should concern all of us. Expectations shape behaviour. When young people lose faith in their futures, that doesn’t just affect their wellbeing, it risks weakening economic growth, productivity and social cohesion too.

“This is not simply a crisis affecting a small minority. Confidence is falling across England, across social groups, and across genders.

“The challenge for policymakers is not only to improve outcomes for young people, but to rebuild belief that those outcomes are still attainable.”

ENDS

Ellie Harris is available for interview

CONTACT

Liam Evans, head of news and media: 07419 365 334 l.evans@ippr.org

NOTES TO EDITORS

Advance copies of the report are available under embargo on request
The analysis draws on Understanding Society, a large-scale household panel survey. Two survey questions ask respondents aged 16–21 to rate, on a scale of 0 to 100, their confidence in being successful and their perceived likelihood of experiencing long-term unemployment. From these continuous measures we construct four binary indicators: high confidence in success (score above 80) and low confidence in success (score below 20); and high perceived likelihood of long-term unemployment (score above 80) and low perceived likelihood (score below 20). Data on meritocracy comes from the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey of April 2026 and our definition of young people is aged 16 to 29.
The IPPR State of a Generation review is a programme of work designed to see the world through the eyes of young people and develop a holistic policy programme that responds to the challenges they face. The review is supported by McDonald's, Youth Futures Foundation and Big Change.
IPPR (the Institute for Public Policy Research) is the UK’s most influential think tank, with alumni in Downing Street, the cabinet and parliament. We are the practical ideas factory behind many of the current government’s flagship policies, including changes to fiscal rules, the creation of a National Wealth Fund, GB Energy, devolution, and reforms to the NHS. As an independent charity working towards a fairer, greener, and more prosperous society, we have spent almost 40 years creating tangible progressive change - turning bold ideas into common sense realities. www.ippr.org