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The Progressive Policy Think Tank

Extra 100,000 people without a job this year

A year and a half before unemployment falls

An extra hundred thousand more people in Britain will be without a job before the end of the summer, according to new analysis by the think tank IPPR. While rising unemployment has begun to slowdown, IPPR analysis of the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts shows there is worse to come.

Unemployment will not 'peak' until at least September and if unemployment rises again this month, as the OBR predicts, it will be the tenth month in a row. The UK's unemployment rate (8.4 per cent) is the worst for 17 years, since 1995 but the OBR's latest forecast show that it will rise further to 8.7 per cent.

The OBR forecast suggests that it could be September next year (2013) before the number of unemployed begins to fall. IPPR analysis - based on the pattern of the increase in 2011 - shows that 50,000 more men and more 50,000 women will become unemployed this year, with 100,000 public sector jobs lost and the 200,000 new jobs created in the private sector being matched by the increase in the number of people looking for work in the UK.

IPPR analysis shows that 41,000 extra young people aged under 25 will join those already unemployed breaking a new record, since records began in 1992. IPPR analysis also shows than an extra 7,000 people aged over 50 will become unemployed.

IPPR North analysis, shows that around the country unemployment will rise this year:

  • an extra 32,000 people will be unemployed in the North West
  • an extra 28,000 people will be unemployed in London
  • an extra 11,000 people will be unemployed in Yorkshire & Humberside
  • an extra 11,000 people will be unemployed in the East of England
  • an extra 9,000 people will be unemployed in the North East
  • an extra 8,000 people will be unemployed in Scotland
  • an extra 7,000 people will be unemployed in Wales
  • an extra 3,000 people will be unemployed in the South East
  • an extra 2,000 people will be unemployed in the East Midlands

But unemployment will fall by:

  • 7,000 in the West Midlands
  • 3,000 in Northern Ireland
  • 1,000 in the South West

Kayte Lawton, IPPR Senior Research Fellow, said:

"The personal tragedy of the slow economic recovery is the way unemployment will continue to rise over the next year, even once the economy begins to grow. This has been the longest recession and the slowest recovery that Britain has ever experienced. "The risk is that high unemployment becomes a permanent feature of the UK economy, as it did in the 1980s. Even within the context of the Government's deficit reduction plan, it is short-sighted of the Government not to do more to get people back into jobs. "The new Youth Contract is a good first step but it must not be the last word. People who have been out of work for more than a year face being scarred by the experience and without help, may never work again."

Notes to Editors

The latest unemployment figures are available from:

IPPR's report - Jobs for the Future: The path back to full employment in the UK - is available from

IPPR's report - 10 ways to promote growth - is available from

IPPR's report - Making the case for universal childcare - is available to download from:


Richard Darlington, 07525 481 602,

Tim Finch, 07595 920899,

Tamsin Crimmens, 07800 742 262, 0191 233 9051,