Migration: A long-run perspective

Article

This paper argues that levels of net lifetime migration to and from the UK in the last two centuries have largely been determined by UK fertility levels.

Annual net migration rates (the numbers arriving and leaving in a single year) are not a very useful measure of medium- or long-term migration trends. This paper looks instead at how people come to and leave England and Wales over the course of their lifetimes (cohort measures). This paints a much clearer picture of the history of migration.

Looking at cohort measures of net migration, we can see that net migration levels in the UK are strongly related to birth rates. In aggregate terms, people's behaviour appears to be very predictable over the course of their lifetimes as a group. This process is remarkably consistent given that it occurs over a time frame of huge economic growth and change. This suggests that net migration trends could be predicted by looking at past birth rates.

This paper argues that levels of net lifetime migration to and from the UK in the last two centuries have largely been determined by UK fertility levels. Read more from Danny Dorling on migration.

Related items

  1. A little girl in a red school uniform looks at the camera while another student writes with a pencil next to her

    What comes next: A fairer approach to primary assessment

    England’s primary school accountability and assessment system is not working well for disadvantaged children.
  2. A woman’s hand filling in a postal ballot / voting form.

    A durable majority?: How public opinion on the EU performs under pressure

    A decade on from Brexit, Andy Burnham has signalled that a reassessment of the UK’s relationship with the EU might be around the corner.
  3. Flags of Great Britain and European Union

    New world, new relationship: Our future with Europe

    Britain’s assumptions about its place in the world no longer hold, upturned by Russian aggression, American unreliability and Chinese coercion.