Migration: A long-run perspective

Article

This paper argues that levels of net lifetime migration to and from the UK in the last two centuries have largely been determined by UK fertility levels.

Annual net migration rates (the numbers arriving and leaving in a single year) are not a very useful measure of medium- or long-term migration trends. This paper looks instead at how people come to and leave England and Wales over the course of their lifetimes (cohort measures). This paints a much clearer picture of the history of migration.

Looking at cohort measures of net migration, we can see that net migration levels in the UK are strongly related to birth rates. In aggregate terms, people's behaviour appears to be very predictable over the course of their lifetimes as a group. This process is remarkably consistent given that it occurs over a time frame of huge economic growth and change. This suggests that net migration trends could be predicted by looking at past birth rates.

This paper argues that levels of net lifetime migration to and from the UK in the last two centuries have largely been determined by UK fertility levels. Read more from Danny Dorling on migration.

Related items

  1. Close-up Of Woman Sitting On Sofa Texting Message On Smartphone

    A better deal: Tackling the NEET crisis

    Around a million young people in the UK are now not in education, employment or training (NEET), the highest number for more than a decade.
  2. A diverse group of neighbours going on a group walk in a residential area, warpped up in warm coats

    From strangers to citizens: Membership and belonging in an age of migration

    Who should become a British citizen in an age of growing mobility and migration?
  3. The Scottish parliament building rises in the backdrop, foregrounded by a pond, trees and a lawn. Blue skies overhead

    Rebuilding Scotland's "New Politics": a constructive parliament to build trust in Scottish politics

    Political disillusionment is growing in Scotland, and policy is not delivering. MSPs who did not stand for re-election this year share how the parliament currently works and could be improved.