Estimating poverty impacts of the coronavirus pandemic
Article
As a result of the pandemic, economic forecasters are expecting a huge surge in unemployment across the UK. And, as with other recessions, some workers may find they are working reduced hours. These economic shocks will have a profound impact on people’s livelihoods in the UK as incomes drop, even with the benefit system providing some income replacement in some cases.
This analysis uses a microsimulation approach to estimate potential poverty impacts from these changes in the economy, focusing on the last quarter of 2020 when unemployment is expected to peak and the Job Retention Scheme is due to end.
IPPR's research finds it highly plausible that over 1 million more people will be under the pre-Covid poverty line compared to a situation where the pandemic had not occurred, including 200,000 children, at the end of the year.
Our analysis suggests that the government will need to go further to prevent increases in child poverty - and much further in order to stem the rise in adult poverty – as a result of the crisis.
Related items
Skills passports: An essential part of a fair transition
This month, government will publish its Clean Energy Workforce Strategy. This plan covers two aims. First, filling the growing demand for skills in clean energy industries is essential to keep on track to reach the government’s clean power…Fixing the leak: How to end the £22 billion annual taxpayer losses at the Bank of England
The Bank of England increased its interest rates over recent years, aimed at reducing inflation. But this has also had an unintended effect on the Bank of England’s massive government bond buying – ‘quantitative easing’ – programme.Fairer is faster: The route to greener and healthier domestic transport
The government can speed up efforts to decarbonise transport by targeting the highest emitters.